# What does a December rate hike add to your holiday shopping?

Carrying $1,500 for 6 months, a quarter-point December hike adds $1.88 of interest if it happens, an expected $1.67 at the market's chance today and $1.66 at DataSnack's number for seven days from now.

Assumes the card's rate rises by the full quarter point and the balance stays level.

- Now: $1.67
- In seven days: $1.66

## The working

The expected extra interest on a credit card balance carried after the Fed's December meeting if the card's rate rises by the quarter point of a 25 basis point hike, weighted by the prediction market's chance of that hike.

| Step | Expression | Now | In seven days |
| - | - | - | - |
| Extra interest if the hike happens | `balance * 0.25 / 100 * months / 12` | $1.88 | $1.88 |
| Expected extra interest | `full * hike` | $1.67 | $1.66 |

Each name in an expression is an input below or an earlier step.

## What this runs on

### DataSnack's models

- `hike`: [December Fed hike chance in a week](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6d643fe615c9), 89% now (2026-11-14), 89% in seven days; graded 1 times since 2026-11-05

### Your assumptions

- `balance`: Balance carried, $1,500 (change it on the page)
- `months`: Months carried, 6 months (change it on the page)

Every model here is graded in public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.

## What this cannot tell you

It ignores the card's existing rate, which costs far more than the hike, and a larger hike is not counted.

## The record

The first answer is graded seven days after it is made.

Data: [CSV](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/december-hike-holiday-card.csv) · [JSON](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/december-hike-holiday-card.json) · [Workbook (Excel)](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/december-hike-holiday-card.xlsx)

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/q/december-hike-holiday-card · Updated 13 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.