# How much of a federal paycheck rides on December 12?

On $75,000 a year, a shutdown of 10 days holds up $2,885 of pay; at the market's chance today that is an expected $1,154, and $1,126 at DataSnack's number for seven days from now.

The shutdown's length is your assumption; the market prices only whether the government is shut on 12 December.

- Now: $1,154
- In seven days: $1,126

## The working

The expected pay that would not arrive on time during a government shutdown starting 12 December, for a stated salary and shutdown length, weighted by the prediction market's chance of a shutdown that day.

| Step | Expression | Now | In seven days |
| - | - | - | - |
| Pay per working day (260 a year) | `pay / 260` | $288.46 | $288.46 |
| Pay held up if it happens | `daily * days` | $2,885 | $2,885 |
| Expected pay held up | `held * shutdown` | $1,154 | $1,126 |

Each name in an expression is an input below or an earlier step.

## What this runs on

### DataSnack's models

- `shutdown`: [Dec 12 shutdown chance, one week ahead](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:a693e126ca57), 40% now (2026-11-14), 39% in seven days; graded 1 times since 2026-11-05

### Your assumptions

- `pay`: Annual pay, $75,000 (change it on the page)
- `days`: Working days the shutdown lasts, 10 days (change it on the page)

Every model here is graded in public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.

## What this cannot tell you

It does not say whether or when the pay is made up, and it counts working days only.

## The record

The first answer is graded seven days after it is made.

Data: [CSV](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/shutdown-paycheck.csv) · [JSON](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/shutdown-paycheck.json) · [Workbook (Excel)](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/shutdown-paycheck.xlsx)

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/q/shutdown-paycheck · Updated 13 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.