Fly or drive to Thanksgiving, on fuel alone?
On fuel alone, a car at 28 mpg matches an airline seat once it carries 2.0 people at today's prices, and 2.0 people at DataSnack's numbers for seven days from now.
Fuel only: the airline's 2023 energy per passenger-mile at the Gulf Coast jet fuel price, against the car's gasoline at the US average.
- Now: 2.0 people
- In seven days: 2.0 people
The working
The number of people a car needs to carry before its fuel cost per person falls below the jet fuel an airline burns per passenger over the same distance.
| Step | Expression | Now | In seven days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jet fuel per passenger-mile | `air_btu / (jet_mmbtu 1000000 / barrel)` | 0.0175 gal | 0.0175 gal |
| Jet fuel cost per passenger-mile | `seat_gal jet` | $0.071 | $0.071 |
| Gasoline cost per car-mile | `gas / mpg` | $0.140 | $0.138 |
| People in the car to match a seat | `car_cost / seat_cost` | 2.0 people | 2.0 people |
Each name in an expression is an input below or an earlier step.
What this runs on
DataSnack's models
- `jet`: Jet fuel, Gulf Coast, $4.035 per gal now (2026-11-11), $4.035 per gal in seven days; standing still: nothing has beaten it yet
- `gas`: Gasoline at the pump, $3.908 per gal now (2026-11-12), $3.870 per gal in seven days
Published figures
- `air_btu`: Airline energy per passenger-mile, 2023, 2,364 Btu (Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 41 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2025), Table 2.15, certificated air carriers, read 2026-11-13)
- `jet_mmbtu`: Heat content of kerosene-type jet fuel, per barrel, 5.670 million Btu (EIA, Monthly Energy Review, Thermal Conversion Factor Source Documentation, read 2026-11-13)
- `barrel`: Gallons in a barrel, 42 gal (EIA, Energy units and calculators explained, read 2026-11-13)
Your assumptions
- `mpg`: Car's fuel economy, 28 mpg (change it on the page)
Every model here is graded in public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.
What this cannot tell you
A fare is much more than fuel, and the airline figure counts all of a flight's fuel against its passengers, cargo included, so the true seat's share is lower.
The record
This is a calculation, not a forecast. It is recomputed every day and its history is below.
Data: CSV · JSON · Workbook (Excel)
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/q/thanksgiving-fly-or-drive · Updated 13 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.