# Fly or drive to Thanksgiving, on fuel alone?

On fuel alone, a car at 28 mpg matches an airline seat once it carries 2.0 people at today's prices, and 2.0 people at DataSnack's numbers for seven days from now.

Fuel only: the airline's 2023 energy per passenger-mile at the Gulf Coast jet fuel price, against the car's gasoline at the US average.

- Now: 2.0 people
- In seven days: 2.0 people

## The working

The number of people a car needs to carry before its fuel cost per person falls below the jet fuel an airline burns per passenger over the same distance.

| Step | Expression | Now | In seven days |
| - | - | - | - |
| Jet fuel per passenger-mile | `air_btu / (jet_mmbtu * 1000000 / barrel)` | 0.0175 gal | 0.0175 gal |
| Jet fuel cost per passenger-mile | `seat_gal * jet` | $0.071 | $0.071 |
| Gasoline cost per car-mile | `gas / mpg` | $0.140 | $0.138 |
| People in the car to match a seat | `car_cost / seat_cost` | 2.0 people | 2.0 people |

Each name in an expression is an input below or an earlier step.

## What this runs on

### DataSnack's models

- `jet`: [Jet fuel, Gulf Coast](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:f808c5565cf4), $4.035 per gal now (2026-11-11), $4.035 per gal in seven days; standing still: nothing has beaten it yet
- `gas`: [Gasoline at the pump](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b3c52887e1a9), $3.908 per gal now (2026-11-12), $3.870 per gal in seven days

### Published figures

- `air_btu`: Airline energy per passenger-mile, 2023, 2,364 Btu ([Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 41 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2025), Table 2.15, certificated air carriers](https://tedb.ornl.gov/downloads/TEDB_Ed_41.pdf), read 2026-11-13)
- `jet_mmbtu`: Heat content of kerosene-type jet fuel, per barrel, 5.670 million Btu ([EIA, Monthly Energy Review, Thermal Conversion Factor Source Documentation](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer_a_doc.pdf), read 2026-11-13)
- `barrel`: Gallons in a barrel, 42 gal ([EIA, Energy units and calculators explained](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/), read 2026-11-13)

### Your assumptions

- `mpg`: Car's fuel economy, 28 mpg (change it on the page)

Every model here is graded in public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.

## What this cannot tell you

A fare is much more than fuel, and the airline figure counts all of a flight's fuel against its passengers, cargo included, so the true seat's share is lower.

## The record

This is a calculation, not a forecast. It is recomputed every day and its history is below.

Data: [CSV](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/thanksgiving-fly-or-drive.csv) · [JSON](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/thanksgiving-fly-or-drive.json) · [Workbook (Excel)](https://datasnack.ai/feed/q/thanksgiving-fly-or-drive.xlsx)

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/q/thanksgiving-fly-or-drive · Updated 13 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.