Brent crude, spot: Head to head
Forecasts like these used to need a research department. DataSnack builds them from three things anyone can get: public data, prediction markets and the news. Here they sit beside the big forecasters' numbers, made a day earlier and graded the same way.
What this number is made from
Public data
The equation: ln ŷ(k) = ln a + β(k) · (μ − ln a), with a the anchor (113.81 $/bbl, the prints through 3 November 2026), μ = 4.4300 and β(k) fitted on 11 November 2026.
- EIA's monthly figures: Brent crude, spot (used): EIA's monthly figure for Brent crude, spot, 442 months on record; the last, October 2026, was 123.93 $/bbl.
- The last 5 daily prints EIA published (the anchor) (used): The anchor, the last 5 daily prints EIA published known on 11 November 2026, through 3 November 2026: 113.81 $/bbl.
- The equation's path (used): Public data alone: 112.63 $/bbl this month, 105.51 $/bbl twelve months ahead.
Prediction markets
Nothing read here yet.
The news
Nothing read here yet.
Prediction markets and the news have not yet been read for this target; the number is public data alone until they are.
Everything here is public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.
DataSnack's path, made 11 November 2026
| Month | Months ahead | Standing still | Public data alone | DataSnack (public data, markets and news) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 1 | 113.81 | 112.63 | 112.63 |
| Dec 2026 | 2 | 113.81 | 111.98 | 111.98 |
| Jan 2027 | 3 | 113.81 | 110.92 | 110.92 |
| Feb 2027 | 4 | 113.81 | 110.13 | 110.13 |
| Mar 2027 | 5 | 113.81 | 109.59 | 109.59 |
| Apr 2027 | 6 | 113.81 | 108.96 | 108.96 |
| May 2027 | 7 | 113.81 | 108.31 | 108.31 |
| Jun 2027 | 8 | 113.81 | 107.62 | 107.62 |
| Jul 2027 | 9 | 113.81 | 107.01 | 107.01 |
| Aug 2027 | 10 | 113.81 | 106.54 | 106.54 |
| Sep 2027 | 11 | 113.81 | 106.03 | 106.03 |
| Oct 2027 | 12 | 113.81 | 105.51 | 105.51 |
| Nov 2027 | 13 | 113.81 | 105.01 | 105.01 |
| Dec 2027 | 14 | 113.81 | 104.66 | 104.66 |
| Jan 2028 | 15 | 113.81 | 104.40 | 104.40 |
| Feb 2028 | 16 | 113.81 | 104.04 | 104.04 |
| Mar 2028 | 17 | 113.81 | 103.63 | 103.63 |
| Apr 2028 | 18 | 113.81 | 103.31 | 103.31 |
Open numbers
| Price | Forecaster | Month | Published | Their number | DataSnack's number (made on) | What happened | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Nov 2026 | 10 November 2026 | 104.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Dec 2026 | 10 November 2026 | 99.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Jan 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 97.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Feb 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 95.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Mar 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 93.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Apr 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 91.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | May 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 89.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Jun 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 87.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Jul 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 85.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Aug 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 83.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Sep 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 81.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Oct 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 79.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Nov 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 77.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Brent crude, spot | EIA | Dec 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 75.00 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
Replay, 2014 to 2026
Replay: numbers computed after the fact from public data alone, with each edition's own information cut-off. Prediction markets and the news as they stood on past days cannot be replayed honestly, so the replay has no DataSnack row and is never added to the live record.
| Row | Closer than EIA | EIA closer | Ties | Mean error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standing still | 1202 of 2454 (49%) | 1251 | 1 | 16.280 $/bbl |
| Public data alone | 1310 of 2454 (53%) | 1143 | 1 | 15.341 $/bbl |
| EIA's number | 15.930 $/bbl |
The seven-day model of this price: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:0ff210ca3728
Downloads, no account: https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/brent.csv, https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/brent.json, and the workbook with the equation, what went in and the whole record: https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/brent.xlsx
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/versus/brent · Updated 12 Nov 2026 00:03 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.