Diesel at the pump: Head to head
Forecasts like these used to need a research department. DataSnack builds them from three things anyone can get: public data, prediction markets and the news. Here they sit beside the big forecasters' numbers, made a day earlier and graded the same way.
What this number is made from
Public data
The equation: ln ŷ(k) = ln a + β(k) · (μ − ln a), with a the anchor (6.127 $/gal, the prints through 9 November 2026), μ = 1.4450 and β(k) fitted on 11 November 2026.
- EIA's monthly figures: Diesel at the pump (used): EIA's monthly figure for Diesel at the pump, 442 months on record; the last, October 2026, was 6.252 $/gal.
- The last weekly print EIA published (the anchor) (used): The anchor, the last weekly print EIA published known on 11 November 2026, through 9 November 2026: 6.127 $/gal.
- The equation's path (used): Public data alone: 6.160 $/gal this month, 5.750 $/gal twelve months ahead.
Prediction markets
Nothing read here yet.
The news
Nothing read here yet.
Prediction markets and the news have not yet been read for this target; the number is public data alone until they are.
Everything here is public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.
DataSnack's path, made 11 November 2026
| Month | Months ahead | Standing still | Public data alone | DataSnack (public data, markets and news) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 1 | 6.127 | 6.160 | 6.160 |
| Dec 2026 | 2 | 6.127 | 6.109 | 6.109 |
| Jan 2027 | 3 | 6.127 | 6.071 | 6.071 |
| Feb 2027 | 4 | 6.127 | 6.038 | 6.038 |
| Mar 2027 | 5 | 6.127 | 6.000 | 6.000 |
| Apr 2027 | 6 | 6.127 | 5.959 | 5.959 |
| May 2027 | 7 | 6.127 | 5.911 | 5.911 |
| Jun 2027 | 8 | 6.127 | 5.861 | 5.861 |
| Jul 2027 | 9 | 6.127 | 5.826 | 5.826 |
| Aug 2027 | 10 | 6.127 | 5.806 | 5.806 |
| Sep 2027 | 11 | 6.127 | 5.783 | 5.783 |
| Oct 2027 | 12 | 6.127 | 5.750 | 5.750 |
| Nov 2027 | 13 | 6.127 | 5.718 | 5.718 |
| Dec 2027 | 14 | 6.127 | 5.693 | 5.693 |
| Jan 2028 | 15 | 6.127 | 5.673 | 5.673 |
| Feb 2028 | 16 | 6.127 | 5.653 | 5.653 |
| Mar 2028 | 17 | 6.127 | 5.640 | 5.640 |
| Apr 2028 | 18 | 6.127 | 5.626 | 5.626 |
Open numbers
| Price | Forecaster | Month | Published | Their number | DataSnack's number (made on) | What happened | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Nov 2026 | 10 November 2026 | 6.101 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Dec 2026 | 10 November 2026 | 5.792 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Jan 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 5.549 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Feb 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 5.338 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Mar 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 5.216 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Apr 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 5.093 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | May 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 5.038 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Jun 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.967 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Jul 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.929 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Aug 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.897 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Sep 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.890 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Oct 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.859 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Nov 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.837 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Diesel at the pump | EIA | Dec 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.716 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
Replay, 2014 to 2026
Replay: numbers computed after the fact from public data alone, with each edition's own information cut-off. Prediction markets and the news as they stood on past days cannot be replayed honestly, so the replay has no DataSnack row and is never added to the live record.
| Row | Closer than EIA | EIA closer | Ties | Mean error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standing still | 1175 of 2454 (48%) | 1272 | 7 | 0.536 $/gal |
| Public data alone | 1260 of 2454 (51%) | 1186 | 8 | 0.511 $/gal |
| EIA's number | 0.510 $/gal |
Downloads, no account: https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/diesel.csv, https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/diesel.json, and the workbook with the equation, what went in and the whole record: https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/diesel.xlsx
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/versus/diesel · Updated 12 Nov 2026 00:03 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.