Regular gasoline at the pump: Head to head
Forecasts like these used to need a research department. DataSnack builds them from three things anyone can get: public data, prediction markets and the news. Here they sit beside the big forecasters' numbers, made a day earlier and graded the same way.
What this number is made from
Public data
The equation: ln ŷ(k) = ln a + β(k) · (μ − ln a), with a the anchor (3.995 $/gal, the prints through 9 November 2026), μ = 1.2534 and β(k) fitted on 11 November 2026.
- EIA's monthly figures: Regular gasoline at the pump (used): EIA's monthly figure for Regular gasoline at the pump, 442 months on record; the last, October 2026, was 4.309 $/gal.
- The last weekly print EIA published (the anchor) (used): The anchor, the last weekly print EIA published known on 11 November 2026, through 9 November 2026: 3.995 $/gal.
- The equation's path (used): Public data alone: 4.013 $/gal this month, 3.906 $/gal twelve months ahead.
Prediction markets
Nothing read here yet.
The news
Nothing read here yet.
Prediction markets and the news have not yet been read for this target; the number is public data alone until they are.
Everything here is public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.
DataSnack's path, made 11 November 2026
| Month | Months ahead | Standing still | Public data alone | DataSnack (public data, markets and news) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 1 | 3.995 | 4.013 | 4.013 |
| Dec 2026 | 2 | 3.995 | 3.963 | 3.963 |
| Jan 2027 | 3 | 3.995 | 3.939 | 3.939 |
| Feb 2027 | 4 | 3.995 | 3.920 | 3.920 |
| Mar 2027 | 5 | 3.995 | 3.904 | 3.904 |
| Apr 2027 | 6 | 3.995 | 3.893 | 3.893 |
| May 2027 | 7 | 3.995 | 3.889 | 3.889 |
| Jun 2027 | 8 | 3.995 | 3.889 | 3.889 |
| Jul 2027 | 9 | 3.995 | 3.895 | 3.895 |
| Aug 2027 | 10 | 3.995 | 3.905 | 3.905 |
| Sep 2027 | 11 | 3.995 | 3.910 | 3.910 |
| Oct 2027 | 12 | 3.995 | 3.906 | 3.906 |
| Nov 2027 | 13 | 3.995 | 3.899 | 3.899 |
| Dec 2027 | 14 | 3.995 | 3.891 | 3.891 |
| Jan 2028 | 15 | 3.995 | 3.880 | 3.880 |
| Feb 2028 | 16 | 3.995 | 3.867 | 3.867 |
| Mar 2028 | 17 | 3.995 | 3.856 | 3.856 |
| Apr 2028 | 18 | 3.995 | 3.849 | 3.849 |
Open numbers
| Price | Forecaster | Month | Published | Their number | DataSnack's number (made on) | What happened | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Nov 2026 | 10 November 2026 | 4.062 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Dec 2026 | 10 November 2026 | 3.794 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Jan 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.681 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Feb 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.619 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Mar 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.759 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Apr 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.861 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | May 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.030 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Jun 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.081 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Jul 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 4.040 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Aug 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.930 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Sep 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.765 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Oct 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.511 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Nov 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.329 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
| Regular gasoline at the pump | EIA | Dec 2027 | 10 November 2026 | 3.136 | – | – | late: published before DataSnack's first path, not counted |
Replay, 2014 to 2026
Replay: numbers computed after the fact from public data alone, with each edition's own information cut-off. Prediction markets and the news as they stood on past days cannot be replayed honestly, so the replay has no DataSnack row and is never added to the live record.
| Row | Closer than EIA | EIA closer | Ties | Mean error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standing still | 1032 of 2454 (42%) | 1411 | 11 | 0.426 $/gal |
| Public data alone | 1168 of 2454 (48%) | 1276 | 10 | 0.402 $/gal |
| EIA's number | 0.389 $/gal |
Downloads, no account: https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/gasoline.csv, https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/gasoline.json, and the workbook with the equation, what went in and the whole record: https://datasnack.ai/feed/versus/gasoline.xlsx
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/versus/gasoline · Updated 12 Nov 2026 00:03 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.