The World Machine
Models of real-world numbers, from crude to the price at the pump, Treasury yields to mortgage rates, ships through the straits to the dollar in yuan. Each predicts where its number will be in seven days, and the models read each other's numbers where that proves to help. Every forecast is graded against standing still, the bar of assuming nothing moves, and every miss is on the page.
No model has a graded forecast yet: the first grades land seven days after each model's first forecast.
Energy, freight and food
Crude and wholesale fuels, stocks and shipping, fuel at the pump, freight and food prices: where a move in oil travels and how long it takes.
| Model | Now | In seven days | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil record high by March 2027 | 14% | 16% | not graded yet |
| Russian diesel imports to the US by March 31 | 13% | 12% | not graded yet |
Rates and inflation
Treasury yields, mortgage rates, the dollar and the markets on the Fed's decisions and the inflation prints.
| Model | Now | In seven days | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| December CPI above 3.1%: standing near certainty | 97% | 97% | not graded yet |
| December Fed hike chance in a week | 85% | 81% | not graded yet |
| Fed cuts in 2026: standing near zero | 98% | 98% | not graded yet |
| Fed December hike chance in a week | 86% | 86% | not graded yet |
| November CPI: pull back from a two-week move | -0.03% | -0.04% | not graded yet |
| November CPI year over year: standing still | 3.75% | 3.75% | not graded yet |
| Recession chance fades and pulls back after jumps | 3% | 2% | not graded yet |
| Where the December Fed rate ladder lands in a week | 4.14% | 4.15% | not graded yet |
| Will the Fed hold in January? | 51% | 51% | not graded yet |
Trade and tariffs
Tariff actions, the ships through the world's chokepoints, the currencies of the largest trading partners and copper.
| Model | Now | In seven days | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb closure chance in a week | 7% | 6% | not graded yet |
| China invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026, one week ahead | 2% | 2% | not graded yet |
| Hormuz traffic normal by 2029 | 73% | 75% | not graded yet |
| Hormuz traffic normal by year-end, one week ahead | 9% | 6% | not graded yet |
| Will a US-Iran Hormuz deal arrive by year-end? | 34% | 36% | not graded yet |
AI and big tech
Which models lead the public boards, what the largest technology companies are worth, and the markets on both.
| Model | Now | In seven days | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO $1.5-1.75T bracket | 22% | 24% | not graded yet |
| Apple versus Nvidia for largest company | 76% | 79% | not graded yet |
| Gemini first to 1550 on Text Arena | 37% | 37% | not graded yet |
| Meta top-ranked AI model chance, one week ahead | 11% | 11% | not graded yet |
| Which company has the best AI model at end of 2026: Google | 72% | 72% | not graded yet |
The what-if, on each page, sets one model's number in seven days and shows the models that move through the links: the models' numbers under that assumption, not predictions that it will happen.
Data: https://datasnack.ai/feed/world.csv (each model today with its record). The method is tested daily on prediction markets in the lab: https://datasnack.ai/lab.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/ · Updated 10 Nov 2026 23:41 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.