Where will Wholesale diesel future be in seven days?

Where will Wholesale diesel future be in seven days? DataSnack's model says $4.35/gal (11 Nov 2026); it is $4.21/gal now. It has no graded forecasts yet.

DataSnack's read

Diesel's next move depends on shipping chokepoints more than on Russian cargoes

Diesel prices feed freight and input costs across the economy, so a miss on direction matters well beyond one contract. The model's case rests on adding Bab el-Mandeb closure odds: 20¢ a day off, against 23¢ for no change.}</br>

The numbers

• Wholesale diesel future now: $4.21/gal
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: $4.35/gal
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 20¢ against 23¢ for standing still; closer on 40 of 60 days
• Fitted on 246 days of history

How the model works

The diesel future starts from its latest close. It shifts with the two-week change in the reading of Russian diesel cargo stories, then with the two-week change in the market's chance of a Bab el-Mandeb closure. With no change in either, the price stays where it is.

• Each 1.0 rise in the Russian diesel cargo reading over two weeks moves the diesel future by about 0 over the following week, as more supply bound for the US eases the market. DataSnack's author expected -0.28; the data say 0 ± 0.099, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
• Each full unit rise in the market's chance of a Bab el-Mandeb closure over two weeks moves the diesel future by about -2.29 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -2; the data say -2.29 ± 1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Fed by

• Bab el-Mandeb closure chance in a week (its number now): Each full unit rise in the market's chance of a Bab el-Mandeb closure over two weeks moves the diesel future by about -2.29 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -2; the data say -2.29 ± 1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Russian diesel cargo bound for the US (reading): 0.6 score on 10 Nov 2026
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? · December 31: 8% on 11 Nov 2026
• Heating oil (ULSD) front-month future close, the diesel benchmark (Yahoo Finance): $4.21/gal on 9 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet.

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says $4.35/gal seven days from now.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:531939861d22.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:531939861d22 · Updated 11 Nov 2026 05:22 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.