Where will US distillate stocks be in seven days?
Where will US distillate stocks be in seven days? DataSnack's model says 100004 thousand bbl (12 Nov 2026); it is 99259 thousand bbl now. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Distillate stocks move slowly, and nothing yet beats assuming no change
Distillate stocks show how much slack the US fuel system holds. The model's case rests on 99259 thousand bbl in seven days, though its 3389 average error trails the 2093 thousand bbl from assuming no change.
The numbers
- US distillate stocks now: 99259 thousand bbl
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 100004 thousand bbl
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.12e+03 against 2.09e+03 for standing still; closer on 23 of 60 days
- Fitted on 153 days of history
How the model works
Distillate stocks are the last weekly print plus the effect of refinery run rates: when refineries run harder over the last week, more distillate is made and stocks rise over the next week.
- About 438 of stock change follows each point of change in refinery utilisation, as higher runs make more distillate. DataSnack's author expected 300; the data say 438 ± 348. A rough rule.
Fed by
- US refinery utilisation (its number now): About 438 of stock change follows each point of change in refinery utilisation, as higher runs make more distillate. DataSnack's author expected 300; the data say 438 ± 348. A rough rule.
Sources
- US distillate stocks, weekly (EIA): 99259 thousand bbl on 30 Oct 2026
- US refinery utilisation, weekly (EIA): 94.50% on 30 Oct 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 12 Nov 2026 for 19 Nov 2026: 100004 thousand bbl
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 100004 thousand bbl seven days from now.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:b7927b7ed3f2.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:b7927b7ed3f2 · Updated 12 Nov 2026 05:39 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.