Where will US refinery utilisation be in seven days?
Where will US refinery utilisation be in seven days? DataSnack's model says 96.09% (12 Nov 2026); it is 94.50% now. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Refiners run near capacity, so distillate stocks decide how long it lasts
Utilisation near 96% shows how tightly fuel supply is running, and a pullback would ripple into product prices and margins. The model's case rests on distillate builds, yet it erred by 1.36 points a day against 1.12 for assuming no change.
The numbers
- US refinery utilisation now: 94.50%
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 96.09%
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.36 points against 1.12 points for standing still; closer on 24 of 60 days
- Fitted on 153 days of history
How the model works
Refinery utilisation tends to pull back after recent moves, and rising distillate stocks signal that refiners may ease runs. The model starts from the latest reading, applies a small pull-back, then adds the distillate stock effect.
- About 0 of each recent move in utilisation carries into next week, so a negative value means it partly reverses. DataSnack's author expected -0.07; the data say 0 ± 0.07. A rough rule.
- Each thousand barrels of distillate stock build is followed by about -0.000185 change in utilisation, as high stocks lead refiners to ease runs. DataSnack's author expected -7.86e-05; the data say -0.000185 ± under 0.01. Fits past data roughly.
Feeds
- US distillate stocks (its number now): About 438 of stock change follows each point of change in refinery utilisation, as higher runs make more distillate. A rough rule.
Sources
- US refinery utilisation, weekly (EIA): 94.50% on 30 Oct 2026
- US distillate stocks, weekly (EIA): 99259 thousand bbl on 30 Oct 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 12 Nov 2026 for 19 Nov 2026: 96.09%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 96.09% seven days from now.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:e4e75ace9bd6.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:e4e75ace9bd6 · Updated 12 Nov 2026 05:34 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.