Where will Diesel at the pump be in seven days?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number is $6.13/gal (12 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Pump diesel trails wholesale futures, so last week's move sets the price

Diesel feeds freight and delivery costs, so the pump price shapes margins well beyond fuel buyers. The model's case rests on about 0.174 of each week's futures move reaching the pump, giving $6.14/gal in seven days.

The numbers

• Diesel at the pump now: $6.13/gal
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 13 days: off by 5¢ against 7¢ for standing still; closer on 9 of 13 days
• Fitted on 16 days of history

How the model works

Retail diesel follows the wholesale diesel benchmark (heating oil futures) with a lag, so the pump price starts from today's level and adds a share of the recent futures move.

• About 0.174 of each week's move in the heating oil future reaches the diesel pump price a week later. DataSnack's author expected 0.4; the data say 0.174 ± 0.28, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Fed by

• Wholesale diesel future (its number now): About 0.174 of each week's move in the heating oil future reaches the diesel pump price a week later. DataSnack's author expected 0.4; the data say 0.174 ± 0.28, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• US diesel, national average (AAA): $6.13/gal on 11 Nov 2026
• Heating oil (ULSD) front-month future close, the diesel benchmark (Yahoo Finance): $4.21/gal on 11 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 12 Nov 2026 for 19 Nov 2026: $6.14/gal

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 19 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:c93277b23e50.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:c93277b23e50 · Updated 12 Nov 2026 05:24 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.