What is a fair price for alien-disclosure insurance?
A policy paying $10,000 if the US confirms aliens exist before 20 January 2029 has a fair price of $1,600 at the market's number today, and $1,600 at DataSnack's number for seven days from now.
At the prediction market's chance, with nothing added for an insurer's costs or margin.
- Now: $1,600
- In seven days: $1,600
The working
The expected payout of a policy that pays a fixed sum if the US government confirms that aliens exist before 20 January 2029, taking the chance at the prediction market's number.
| Step | Expression | Now | In seven days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair price of the policy | `payout chance` | $1,600 | $1,600 |
Each name in an expression is an input below or an earlier step.
What this runs on
DataSnack's models
- `chance`: US alien confirmation: decay plus mean reversion, 16% now (2026-11-14), 16% in seven days; graded 1 times since 2026-11-05
Your assumptions
- `payout`: The policy pays, $10,000 (change it on the page)
Every model here is graded in public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.
What this cannot tell you
The market's number is a price, not a measured probability, and no insurer sells this policy.
The record
The first answer is graded seven days after it is made.
Data: CSV · JSON · Workbook (Excel)
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/q/alien-disclosure-insurance · Updated 13 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.