What does a December rate hike add to your holiday shopping?
Carrying $1,500 for 6 months, a quarter-point December hike adds $1.88 of interest if it happens, an expected $1.67 at the market's chance today and $1.66 at DataSnack's number for seven days from now.
Assumes the card's rate rises by the full quarter point and the balance stays level.
- Now: $1.67
- In seven days: $1.66
The working
The expected extra interest on a credit card balance carried after the Fed's December meeting if the card's rate rises by the quarter point of a 25 basis point hike, weighted by the prediction market's chance of that hike.
| Step | Expression | Now | In seven days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extra interest if the hike happens | `balance 0.25 / 100 months / 12` | $1.88 | $1.88 |
| Expected extra interest | `full hike` | $1.67 | $1.66 |
Each name in an expression is an input below or an earlier step.
What this runs on
DataSnack's models
- `hike`: December Fed hike chance in a week, 89% now (2026-11-14), 89% in seven days; graded 1 times since 2026-11-05
Your assumptions
- `balance`: Balance carried, $1,500 (change it on the page)
- `months`: Months carried, 6 months (change it on the page)
Every model here is graded in public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.
What this cannot tell you
It ignores the card's existing rate, which costs far more than the hike, and a larger hike is not counted.
The record
The first answer is graded seven days after it is made.
Data: CSV · JSON · Workbook (Excel)
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/q/december-hike-holiday-card · Updated 13 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.