How much of a federal paycheck rides on December 12?
On $75,000 a year, a shutdown of 10 days holds up $2,885 of pay; at the market's chance today that is an expected $1,154, and $1,126 at DataSnack's number for seven days from now.
The shutdown's length is your assumption; the market prices only whether the government is shut on 12 December.
- Now: $1,154
- In seven days: $1,126
The working
The expected pay that would not arrive on time during a government shutdown starting 12 December, for a stated salary and shutdown length, weighted by the prediction market's chance of a shutdown that day.
| Step | Expression | Now | In seven days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pay per working day (260 a year) | `pay / 260` | $288.46 | $288.46 |
| Pay held up if it happens | `daily days` | $2,885 | $2,885 |
| Expected pay held up | `held shutdown` | $1,154 | $1,126 |
Each name in an expression is an input below or an earlier step.
What this runs on
DataSnack's models
- `shutdown`: Dec 12 shutdown chance, one week ahead, 40% now (2026-11-14), 39% in seven days; graded 1 times since 2026-11-05
Your assumptions
- `pay`: Annual pay, $75,000 (change it on the page)
- `days`: Working days the shutdown lasts, 10 days (change it on the page)
Every model here is graded in public. Download the workbook and rebuild it.
What this cannot tell you
It does not say whether or when the pay is made up, and it counts working days only.
The record
The first answer is graded seven days after it is made.
Data: CSV · JSON · Workbook (Excel)
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/q/shutdown-paycheck · Updated 13 Nov 2026 12:00 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.