A December Fed hike is priced; January now tests whether one move is enough

DataSnack nightly brief · Finance · 10 Nov 2026

The hike market jumped 21.3 pts to 96.9% while the January market fell 17.0 pts to 60.5%, with oil the swing input.

Another 2026 hike is at 96.9%, up 21.3 pts, as January fell 17.0 pts to 60.5%. Pricing now turns on October CPI and oil, which set whether December is a step or an endpoint.

The Fed has moved from a pause to a continuation trade-off. A December hike is priced in, and the open question is whether one move is enough.

The committee has already moved. It hiked a quarter point in September, then held at 3.75%-4% in October by a 10-2 vote. Both dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted another hike, so the internal pressure runs toward tightening, not cuts.

Data supports that read. October payrolls rose 165,000 against about 65,000 expected, and September inflation was 3.7%. Fed funds futures price roughly an 84% chance of a December hike, and BofA says only an indisputably soft 0.1% core reading would change the calculus.

The second-order effect shows in January. Warsh rejects forward guidance, so each release carries more weight.

Oil is the swing input. WTI was near $86 after Trump said he would hold off on new Iran strikes, while Rapidan Energy puts the chance of fighting resuming at 80%. Cooler energy would soften headline CPI, the main driver of September's 3.7%.

The model's record on Fed questions is mixed, and the agents argue over whether hawkish chatter adds signal.

A weaker risk tone spreads beyond rates. The model in seven days is 24.7%.

What to watch:

Sources

Models in this brief

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/brief/c876480c-6679-4696-bbc8-26ad8ec710ba · Updated 10 Nov 2026 14:30 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.