Politics forecasts | DataSnack
Seven-day forecasts of prediction-market questions on elections, policy and government. Each is graded daily against standing still; every model's record, including its misses, is on its page.
- Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 27%; DataSnack's model in seven days 26%
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?: the market's number (Polymarket) 26%; DataSnack's model in seven days 38%
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 18%; DataSnack's model in seven days 33%
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?: the market's number (Kalshi) 69%; DataSnack's model in seven days 71%
- US imports Russian diesel by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 13%
- Next leader out of power before 2027?: the market's number (Polymarket) 44%; DataSnack's model in seven days 45%
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 3%; DataSnack's model in seven days 2%
- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: the market's number (Polymarket) 27%; DataSnack's model in seven days 44%
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?: the market's number (Polymarket) 91%; DataSnack's model in seven days 91%
- Next Israeli government formed by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 84%
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: the market's number (Polymarket) 17%; DataSnack's model in seven days 22%
- Elon Musk # tweets November 6 - November 13, 2026?: the market's number (Polymarket) 23%
- Pete Hegseth impeached by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 88%
- Next Press Secretary announced by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 77%
- Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 22%
- Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?: the market's number (Kalshi) 42%; DataSnack's model in seven days 32%
- Netanyahu out by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 69%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 68%; DataSnack's model in seven days 70%
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 39%; DataSnack's model in seven days 55%
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden: the market's number (Polymarket) 49%; DataSnack's model in seven days 73%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?: the market's number (Kalshi) 50%; DataSnack's model in seven days 49%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 8%; DataSnack's model in seven days 7%
- 2028 popular vote margin of victory?: the market's number (Kalshi) 21%; DataSnack's model in seven days 40%
- Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?: the market's number (Polymarket) 80%; DataSnack's model in seven days 74%
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: the market's number (Kalshi) 26%; DataSnack's model in seven days 25%
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: the market's number (Polymarket) 27%; DataSnack's model in seven days 28%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 100%
- Taipei Mayor Election Winner: the market's number (Polymarket) 66%; DataSnack's model in seven days 70%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: the market's number (Polymarket) 9%; DataSnack's model in seven days 12%
- Iran leadership change by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 23%; DataSnack's model in seven days 23%
- What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?: the market's number (Polymarket) 14%; DataSnack's model in seven days 14%
- Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures): the market's number (Polymarket) 24%; DataSnack's model in seven days 27%
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 9%; DataSnack's model in seven days 9%
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?: the market's number (Polymarket) 93%; DataSnack's model in seven days 92%
- Next Prime Minister of Spain?: the market's number (Polymarket) 93%; DataSnack's model in seven days 90%
- Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?: the market's number (Polymarket) 6%; DataSnack's model in seven days 23%
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: the market's number (Polymarket) 2%; DataSnack's model in seven days 2%
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 42%
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?: the market's number (Polymarket) 34%; DataSnack's model in seven days 30%
- Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner: the market's number (Polymarket) 64%
- NATO x Russia military clash by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 12%; DataSnack's model in seven days 12%
- New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: the market's number (Polymarket) 61%; DataSnack's model in seven days 56%
- Argentina Presidential Election Winner: the market's number (Polymarket) 45%; DataSnack's model in seven days 45%
- Saudi airspace closed by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 8%; DataSnack's model in seven days 6%
- Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?: the market's number (Polymarket) 30%; DataSnack's model in seven days 10%
- Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?: the market's number (Polymarket) 91%; DataSnack's model in seven days 91%
- 2028 U.S. Senate winner?: the market's number (Kalshi) 87%; DataSnack's model in seven days 93%
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: the market's number (Kalshi) 20%; DataSnack's model in seven days 23%
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee: the market's number (Kalshi) 34%; DataSnack's model in seven days 34%
- Next French Presidential Election: the market's number (Polymarket) 45%; DataSnack's model in seven days 43%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: the market's number (Polymarket) 31%; DataSnack's model in seven days 33%
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?: the market's number (Polymarket) 14%; DataSnack's model in seven days 9%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?: the market's number (Polymarket) 3%; DataSnack's model in seven days 2%
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?: the market's number (Polymarket) 34%; DataSnack's model in seven days 38%
- Next Press Secretary?: the market's number (Polymarket) 14%
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/areas/politics · Updated 10 Nov 2026 17:49 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.